Modeling Report: How An Increase of Vaccines Could Impact Colorado

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) released a statement on Aug. 2 detailing a statewide modeling report showing the projected impact of an increased number of vaccinations by Labor Day. They stress that it is imperative more people get vaccinated because the models show that Colorado could still experience thousands more cases of COVID-19 over the months ahead.

On Aug. 2, Governor Jared Polis (D-Colo.) gave an update on the vaccination rate in the state, noting that over 70% of elligible Coloradans have been vaccinated. However, the CDPHE's modeling shows that increasing vaccination rates to 80% among adults will prevent substantial hospitalizations due to COVID-19 going into the fall.

Through the modeling report, the state is also looking at a target of 70% of teen vaccinations as schools get ready to open for the new year.

By The Numbers

In order to hit the model's suggested goal of 80% for adult vaccinations, 456,000 first doses will need to be administered in August. And, according to the modeling report, in order to get to their 70% goal for teens with at least one shot, 90,500 first doses will need to be administered in the month of August as well.

With news of the Delta variant and the severity of its spread, Colorado saw an uptick in vaccination numbers last week after initially watching the numbers of vaccinations declining daily.

While the model notes that vaccinating adults prevents more hospitalizations than vaccinating teens, the CDPHE does have a focus on teens due to the nature of schools and full numbers returning to campuses in the fall.

The Colorado School of Public Health is responsible for assembling the Modeling team. The team has modeling scientists from the Colorado School of Public Health, the University of Colorado School of Medicine at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus, and utilizing experts from CU Boulder, CU Denver, and CSU.

While the models are based on data from the state of Colorado, the CDPHE's statement also says they "incorporate assumptions reflecting the current state of the science".